The End of Certainty and the Rise of Wicked Problems

In Newtonian physics the universe was thought to obey constant, fundamental laws but relativity theory and quantum mechanics shook this classical belief that the universe was knowable to any degree of certainty. Furthermore, the Second Law of Thermodynamics described how useful energy in a closed system is gradually lost into heat. Entropy — or how order slowly becomes disorder — revealed our entire universe to be dying.

Closed systems — like the universe — hurtle towards ‘heat death’ on a cosmic timeline, while organisations do so on a more human scale. An increasing ‘topple rate of firms’ — the rate at which organisations die [1] — suggests that if organisations to survive and thrive leaders need to open them up to link better with their ecosystems — to channel new inputs of knowledge, ideas and approaches. Yet a major obstacle to this is the sense of fear leaders have of losing control of the executive powers many feel they need to deal effectively with 21st century problems.

Executive fear is hamstringing many organisations in dealing with the problems executives are so fearful of.

Opening up and embracing uncertainty [2] requires leaders to focus on what’s really happening on the frontline — dealing with how things really are — rather than focusing on how they wished things were. Attempts to ‘engineer’ ideal futures — through the chicanery of annual budgets, strategy roll outs and performance management dances — obscures a simple truth: executives must adapt or their organisations will die. [3]

There is much an Adaptive Leader [⁠4] can do to align their organisation with reality. One of the most powerful steps is having a vision — providing genuine purpose:

“What we all want is to be valued members of a winning team on an inspiring mission” (G.Weston)

Authentic missions (an outcome of situational awareness and a purpose beyond profit maximisation alone) attract volunteers to the cause and reinforce bonds holding the organisation together — with little extra coordination effort required. The NASA cleaner who answered the visiting dignitary’s question — “what do you do you here?” — with — “I’m helping put a man on the moon” underscores the power a vision has to mobilise people without the need for a ‘performance management’ charade.

Inspiring missions align people on a common journey and help overcome inevitable bumps in the road without losing overall cohesion. It’s another reason why ‘the dumbest idea in business’ — maximising shareholder returns — deserves its increasing level of criticism: it denies the organisation an authentic rallying cry — compelling it instead to dress up an uninspiring profit motive with tortuous, vacuous slogans and buzzwords.

The physicist Murray Gell-Mann spoke of a “maladaptive schemata” (mindsets) — organisms that were once adaptive, but under conditions that no longer prevail as their environment has changed at a faster rate than they have.⁠ As Kodak gave way to the digital era and Blackberry to the rise of the smartphone so the maladaptive mindsets of many executives — continuing to act as if tomorrow will be merely an extension of today — are amongst the biggest threats their organisations face today.

Maladaptively seeing a more complex world — with increased levels of uncertainty — as merely a more complicated machine that can be controlled (if only we just hire the right top talent, or get the right consultant or adopt the right technology) signals the start of the organisation’s degradation — the fish rotting from the head down:

1. Executive attention starts to focus on the performance of components (processes, departments, staff etc.) rather than on the system as a whole
2. ‘Gaming & blaming’ between component parts increases as they compete for finite — and often declining — resources
3. Increased internal competition distracts from the common purpose of recognising and meeting customers’ evolving needs — contributing to the further tightening and destabilisation of the entire system
4. Rather than adapting as they go executives feel the need to re-set the organisation periodically — an expensive and often damaging exercise that accelerates its death spiral.

Executives seeing the world as they are — rather than how the world really is threatens to drive many organisations into premature ‘heat-death’.

Wicked problems

A symptom of maladaptive organisations are the rise of ‘wicked problems’ which the executives current tools — designed for tamer times — are increasingly ill-suited for. This forces many of them to seek the latest ‘silver bullet’ idea showcased in HBR or adopting someone else’s ‘best practice’.

Wicked problems — first defined by Rittel & Weber (1973) — are increasing today in a more tightly coupled and interconnected world. They are:

1. Deeply entangled problems— impossible to address in isolation
2. Context-specific — resistant to ‘best practice solutions’ being imposed
3. Have no ‘stopping point’ — they need re-solving periodically.

Interventions to deal with wicked problems are:

1. Neither right nor wrong — just better for some, worse for others
2. Likely to have unintended, irreversible system-wide consequences. ⁠[5]

Wicked problems therefore are particularly dangerous for ‘maladaptive’ organisations as their leaders prematurely converge on simplistic casual explanations and solutions rather than seeing and working with the systemic nature of them [⁠6]. They approach problems mechanically — often seduced by consultants armed with hammers looking for nails to bang at great expense. That these executives are usually only in it for a limited short-term period merely exacerbates the problem.

“If we are to adapt and survive in a complex, uncertain, constantly changing environment your best weapon is your mind. Learning how to think well and quickly is the first prerequisite of survival.”⁠ (Colonel Boyd, in ‘Science, Strategy, War’. Frans Osinga)

The end of certainty — both for physicists contemplating the universe (or multi-verse) and executives dealing with the daily questions about how to survive and thrive — means the rise of wicked problems is unstoppable. The first step the wise executive will make therefore is to understand the truth of the current position they are facing [7]; the second will be to get ready to go down the rabbit hole of complexity thinking …